Consistency and heterogeneity of individual behavior under uncertainty

By using graphical representations of simple portfolio choice problems, we generate a very rich data set to study behavior under uncertainty at the level of the individual subject. We test the data for consistency with the maximization hypothesis, and we estimate preferences using a two-parameter utility function based on Faruk Gul (1991). This specification provides a good interpretation of the data at the individual level and can account for the highly heterogeneous behaviors observed in the laboratory. The parameter estimates jointly describe attitudes toward risk and allow us to characterize the distribution of risk preferences in the population

Estimation of the Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccination with Enhanced Effectiveness in Canada

INTRODUCTION: The propensity for influenza viruses to mutate and recombine makes them both a familiar threat and a prototype emerging infectious disease. Emerging evidence suggests that the use of MF59-adjuvanted vaccines in older adults and young children enhances protection against influenza infection and reduces adverse influenza-attributable outcomes compared to unadjuvanted vaccines. The health and economic impact of such vaccines in the Canadian population are uncertain. METHODS: We constructed an age-structured compartmental model simulating the transmission of influenza in the Canadian population over a ten-year period. We compared projected health outcomes (quality-adjusted life years (QALY) lost), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for three strategies: (i) current use of unadjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine; (ii) use of MF59-adjuvanted influenza vaccine adults ≥65 in the Canadian population, and (iii) adjuvanted vaccine used in both older adults and children aged < 6. RESULTS: In the base case analysis, use of adjuvanted vaccine in older adults was highly cost-effective (ICER = $2111/QALY gained), but such a program was "dominated" by a program that extended the use of adjuvanted vaccine to include young children (ICER =$1612/QALY). Results were similar whether or not a universal influenza immunization program was used in other age groups; projections were robust in the face of wide-ranging sensitivity analyses. INTERPRETATION: Based on the best available data, it is projected that replacement of traditional trivalent influenza vaccines with MF59-adjuvanted vaccines would confer substantial benefits to vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, and would be economically attractive relative to other widely-used preventive interventions

Optimal Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Allocation Strategies for the Canadian Population

BACKGROUND: The world is currently confronting the first influenza pandemic of the 21(st) century. Influenza vaccination is an effective preventive measure, but the unique epidemiological features of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1) introduce uncertainty as to the best strategy for prioritization of vaccine allocation. We sought to determine optimal prioritization of vaccine distribution among different age and risk groups within the Canadian population, to minimize influenza-attributable morbidity and mortality. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a deterministic, age-structured compartmental model of influenza transmission, with key parameter values estimated from data collected during the initial phase of the epidemic in Ontario, Canada. We examined the effect of different vaccination strategies on attack rates, hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and mortality. In all scenarios, prioritization of high-risk individuals (those with underlying chronic conditions and pregnant women), regardless of age, markedly decreased the frequency of severe outcomes. When individuals with underlying medical conditions were not prioritized and an age group-based approach was used, preferential vaccination of age groups at increased risk of severe outcomes following infection generally resulted in decreased mortality compared to targeting vaccine to age groups with higher transmission, at a cost of higher population-level attack rates. All simulations were sensitive to the timing of the epidemic peak in relation to vaccine availability, with vaccination having the greatest impact when it was implemented well in advance of the epidemic peak. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our model simulations suggest that vaccine should be allocated to high-risk groups, regardless of age, followed by age groups at increased risk of severe outcomes. Vaccination may significantly reduce influenza-attributable morbidity and mortality, but the benefits are dependent on epidemic dynamics, time for program roll-out, and vaccine uptake

Experience of communal conflicts and intergroup lending

We provide microeconomic evidence on ethnic frictions and market efficiency, using dyadic data on managers and borrowers from a large Indian bank. We conjecture that, if exposure to religion-based communal violence intensifies intergroup animosity, riot exposure will lead to lending decisions that are more sensitive to a borrower’s religion. We find that riot-exposed Hindu branch managers lend relatively less to Muslim borrowers and that these loans are less likely to default, consistent with riot exposure exacerbating taste-based discrimination. This bias is persistent across a bank officer’s tenure, suggesting that the economic costs of ethnic conflict are long-lasting, potentially spanning across generations

South Africa - CGIAR Partnership Results in New Maize Varieties with 30 to 50 percent higher yields

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Payment instruments, finance and development

This paper studies the effects of a payment technology innovation (mobile money) on entrepreneurship and economic development in a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model. In the model mobile money dominates fiat money as a medium of exchange, since it avoids the risk of theft, but comes with electronic transaction costs. We show that entrepreneurs with higher productivity and access to trade credit are more likely to adopt mobile money as a payment instrument vis-a-vis suppliers. Calibrating the stationary equilibrium of the model to match firm-level data from Kenya, we show significant quantitative implications of mobile money for entrepreneurial growth and macroeconomic development